Brad Keithley, University of Virginia School of Law, Hall Estill, Jones Day, Perkins Coie, Alaskans for a sustainable economy, It's our future, Regulatory Commission of Alaska, In response to our commentary yesterday (scroll down), we are pleased to provide a related Facebook discussion below from Brad Keithley's (NGP Photo) page, Alaskans For A Sustainable Budget: 

 

 

  • Greg L Kisor Best article on the subject I've read.
    22 hrs · Unlike · 1

  • Steve Pratt Good piece. My own analysis a few years ago indicated the PERS liability to be about $5 Bill. more than the $10B. In any case, it is going to be interesting.

  • Andy Holleman Dave, I find one part confusing….you say " The piece quotes some who contend that those supporting SB 21, Alaska's oil tax reform law, misled the public. Any Alaskan who trumpets blame undermines cooperation and defies the public interest. "

    There's     no question that some of the supporters of SB 21 mislead people. There's no question some of the opponents of SB 21 misled people.

    Why is seeking clarity on that in defiance of the public interest?? Especially when you close with a warning against false prophets.

    Would it not be in the public's best interest, going forward, to know who was truthful and who was not?

    And for the record, I'm not talking about folks that made predictions that were labeled as such, but people that implied things that weren't true.
    3 hrs · Like

  • Dave Harbour You raise valid points, Andy. I should have more clearly stated my intent: "in this critical year we should focus on cooperative solutions rather than who did what to whom in the past. While investing our full energy to find solutions in 2015, we should distinguish between actors seeking personal gain from those seeking the best outcome for all Alaskans." Thank you for the nudge to clarify.
    1 hr · Like · 1

  • Dave Harbour Good comment, Steve. In fact, over the years I have referred to your analysis a number of times, until later information replaced it. I believe that as of 2012, the unfunded PERS/TRS liability was in the $11.8 billion range following some annual payments in the $250-300 million range. Then, in the last session the liability was 'paid down' by $3 billion. I'd hesitate to guess at today's actual number — especially when state offices are closed right now — but believe it is likely to be between $8.5-9.5 billion. Next week, I'll try to run the current — or latest available — number down. In any case, the number is big and offsets most of the hope some may have for state savings accounts (i.e. Probably valued in the $12.5 range today following the $3 billion payment to PERS/TRS). If Alaska burns through savings to subsidize unsustainable operating costs, the only way it can keep 'full faith and credit' with retirees is to dip into the Permanent Fund to satisfy unfunded liabilities. That's why I think all of us reading this blog believe this year is so critical. If big and cooperative decisions are not made to change the trend line now, and absent the appearance of one or more economic miracles, the day of reckoning surely lies just around the corner. With that mission and challenge in mind, one can see the tensions growing (i.e. interests of operating fund constituents vs. state retirees; interests of subsidy beneficiaries vs. taxpayers; interests of today's citizens vs. their childrens' interests; interests of obtaining higher short term taxes from oil, mining, tourism, fishing, etc. companies vs. provding a secure investment climate that invites their investment and job creation over time.) This is why I do not envy the Governor or Legislature or Mayors or Wealth Producers or Government Program Beneficiaries; for 2015 is sure to be a historical transition to a new Alaskan economy. A year from now, it will be interesting for us all to consider these challenges and weigh them against our successes. Hopefully, we will have made our children proud. Dave