Yesterday’s Headline:   Will Alaska & Alberta punish taxpayers with more taxes —  or — reward bureaucracies and entitlement beneficiaries with tax increases?  You decide!

Today’s Alberta Headline, below:  “…a budget deficit above $10 billion, which is scary by any standard….”

Today’s Alaska Headlines, and our commentary below:

“Is Alaska Still America’s Last Frontier of Freedom?”

We genuinely like and respect almost all of the elected officials we have come to know after over four decades of Alaska residency and Alberta interaction.  Nevertheless, in business we would say that reward does not result from “good intent” or “being busy”; reward follows results.  Today we comment, with great regret, on the busy, good intent of public officials who did not lead their constituencies into a future of sustainable budgets.  There is still time to create economically sustainable futures for the children of these northern oil patches.  But elected officials better figure out ways to act both effectively and quickly.

by

Dave Harbour

Alaska’s deficit is about half that of a neighboring Canadian province with four times the population.  As our regular readers have found, neither Alaska’s nor Alberta’s government is confronting the need for balanced budgets decisively or effectively.

As we watch Alaskan legislative debate during these last days of the 2016 legislative session we have several observations:  1)  Legislators of all stripes are finally concluding that their state really has encountered the most serious fiscal crisis since approval in 1959 of the Alaska Statehood Act, and 2) Legislators are united in non partisan indecision about what combination of spending cuts or new taxes cause them the least amount of political pain in the process of correcting what is now a $4.1 billion anticipated budget deficit; and 3) democrats want to protect socialized spending on entitlements, state services, subsidies, minimum wages and prevailing wage union support (i.e. their voting constituencies), while 4) republicans are mostly united around the philosophical concept of cutting government expense to meet revenue reality — but are effectively intimidated by democrat constituencies calling them names.

We continue to see our earlier coined phrase — admittedly a generalization of American political dynamics — supported by both human nature and current practice: “Democrats never compromise; republicans always compromise”.

The socialist side is focused on accruing power by over regulating and taxing opponents while redistributing the income of wealth producers to socialist voting constituencies.

The accrued effect of this process, over decades, is the enlargement of government and government’s support constituencies along with the dismemberment and gradual dissolution of free enterprise voting constituencies.  This explains why the world leader in the “global warming/climate change movement” admits that the goal is not environmental improvement; rather, the goal is the destruction of capitalism.”

Alaskan and Canadian socialists are completely behind this effort.  (See our Chris Nelson commentary.)

The opponents of free enterprise are now, openly, socialists (i.e. as our evidence proves following the choice by Alaska democrats of presidential socialist candidate Bernie Sanders).  Concurrently, the traditional defenders of free enterprise are too often succumbing to socialist compromise or intimidation,

The trend is thus obvious to all who have eyes to see: absent a spectacular appearance of effective, conservative leadership.

Indeed, the 49th State built on natural resource entrepreneurialism has evolved from being renowned as the “last frontier”, or the “pioneering state”, into what it is becoming, “The Great Denali of Socialism”.

On the national scene, foreign Congressmen and Presidents have emasculated Alaska’s ability to rely on its natural resource wealth.

On the local scene, socialist elements — with help from over 3 dozen national and international environmental field office activists — have organized communities of entitled voters so effectively that in the bat of an eyelid Alaska could transform from a “red state” to a “blue state”.

We expect — but do not hope — to see more and more legislators “getting out while the getting is good”, as happened this week in Juneau.   We personally know and like almost all of them and find them charming, honest and sincere, in general.  Each will have a credible reason for retiring.  Each will appear to have been well intended.  Each will have, “worked hard for the people”.  Each, “could have made more money by avoiding public service, though money is not my priority”.   It is not wrong to expect to see more retiring in the next 24 months before the state moves, from teetering on the edge of the fiscal insolvency, into the abyss that is a declaration of bankruptcy.  Our regular readers do see the handwriting on the wall; they have seen Greece crash, Detroit deteriorate, Puerto Rico fail and their own think tank (i.e. ISER) has warned them repeatedly over the years.  Yet, chaotically and seemingly leaderless, they have spent with abandon.  They have either consciously supported or indirectly prevented establishment of fiscal sustainability.  Their irresponsible budgeting and compromising are rooted in an absence of strong values and/or courage along with a proclivity to “compromise” when intimidated…and, to seek public approval with each vote.

If ‘conservative’ leaders do begin to run for an exit as they face their own fiscal failures, expect to see more and more socialist legislators, mayors and assembly members elected.  They will demonize any remaining, ‘greedy’ conservatives, intimidate them more.  And, they will promise more spending and more taxing of ‘rich corporations’ as the ranks of entitled voters grow.

As socialist power grows it is also logical to expect battalions of experienced business leaders and free enterprise employees to pull up stakes seeking other places that can become for them, “new frontiers of freedom”.

For, unless its founding natural resource principles and values can be reinvigorated, Alaska can not truly be now called, “The last frontier of freedom”.       -dh


ALBERTA TODAY

Calgary Herald by Don Braid.  …  If there’s an iron law of Alberta politics, it’s that big deficits cut short careers. Wrong-way cash flows helped abbreviate the terms of three PC premiers: Don Getty, Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford.

On Thursday, we’ll see a budget deficit above $10 billion, which is scary by any standard, and the biggest of all Alberta whoppers when adjusted for inflation.

The reality is that a single province with four million people will run a deficit one-third the size of the national government’s.

…  Now there’s this shortfall of up to $10.4 billion. This is the point where even progressives who believe in stimulus spending start to get nervous.

…

Their view is always more social than fiscal. They would rather save one job than cut $1,000 in spending. They won’t add more unemployment to 110,000 layoffs, and that means protecting public sector jobs.

…

Overspending on such a scale becomes a gamble with ever higher stakes. More….

ALASKA TODAY

Alaska Public Radio Network News Roundup by Daniel McDonald.

Oil and gas tax credit debate rages ahead of legislative session end
The House spent six hours debating oil and gas tax credits Tuesday night.   Industry calls Senate oil tax credit bill “bad for Alaska”  As the Alaska House continues its marathon debate on the oil and gas tax credit bill, the Senate is moving its own version forward…  Alaska Gov. Walker will give televised budget speech Thursday  Alaska Gov. Bill Walker will deliver a 15-minute “state of the budget” speech on KTUU Channel 2 Anchorage on Thursday evening in an effort…  Rasmuson Foundation report criticizes Walker’s budget plan  A report issued by the Rasmuson Foundation says Gov. Walker’s budget plan would disproportionately hurt poor and middle-income Alaskans because of its reliance on cuts to Permanent Fund dividends.   ‘Don’t touch my dividend’ is not a fiscal plan, and fails the reality test  OPINION: Neither the average Alaskan voter nor the lawmakers they elect have fully recognized Alaska’s fiscal challenge.  Walker administration suggests tweaks to Permanent Fund bill  Gov. Bill Walker’s administration is generally pleased with a House committee proposal calling for structured annual draws from Alaska Permanent Fund earnings…  Scaled-back oil tax credit bill finds little support in House  The House worked until nearly 2 a.m. Wednesday on a bill to reform the state’s oil tax credits but couldn’t muster enough votes to pass the bill 17 hours later.  Public testimony scheduled for income taxes, permanent fund plan  With the clock ticking toward the end of the legislative session, the House Finance Committee has scheduled public testimony for Thursday evening on a bill…    Alaska House minority wants bigger tax credit changes  The minority leader of the Alaska House says that if his caucus isn’t satisfied with changes to the state’s oil and gas tax credit program…   
End-of-session TV special to feature Gov. Walker, leaders from Legislature
Gov. Bill Walker, Sen. Anna MacKinnon, R-Eagle River, and Rep. Chris Tuck, D-Anchorage, will be on an end-of-session special hosted by Anchorage TV station KTUU to talk about the session…

Parental rights bill stays alive, for now
While a bill that would have banned abortion providers in schools died in committee, the less controversial elements of the bill continue to live on.

Cruise ship group: Statue plans are misuse of fees
A life-sized whale statue has Juneau in hot water after a cruise ship association alleged it’s a symbol of the Alaska city’s misuse of millions in fees paid by visitors.

Governor’s oil tax reform bill falters in House, moves back to committee
At the end of a marathon House floor session on Gov. Bill Walker’s proposal to overhaul oil and gas tax policy, early Wednesday…

Borough budget talks begin
Mill rate likely to remain unchanged, borough manager says…

Proposed bill would cut Cook Inlet oil, gas tax credits
The debate over proposed changes to the oil and gas tax credit program is coming down to the wire, with just days left in the regular Legislative session.

Governor Walker’s birthday wish is to have a fiscal plan: ‘We’re not quite there’
Gov. Bill Walker turns 65 on Saturday, the 89th day of the 90-day session, and he has a birthday wish for lawmakers. 

Credit cuts move over industry objections
The legislation tree sprouting from Gov. Bill Walker’s oil and gas tax credit revamp grew again April 11 when the Senate Resources Committee introduced its own tax credit rewrite. ​

MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTARY & NEWS

Alaska LNG Project CEO Search.  Alaska Journal of Commerce by Elwood Brehmer.

The Alaska Gasline Development Corp.’s (AGDC) search for a new CEO appears to be winding down.  AGDC board member Hugh Short, who has led the board’s hunt for a new president and CEO, said in an interview that the board has winnowed its list of candidates down….  From a broad perspective, the depressed nature of worldwide oil and natural gas markets has been a concern during the process, but Short said the near-term uncertainty regarding the status of the $45 billion-plus Alaska LNG Project has not challenged the search.  (Note: No surprise.  An energy CEO looking for a job during a depressed energy era could find a government owned AGDC assignment enticing.   One could negotiate for generous employment and severance terms.  And, to be sure, were AGDC’s doors to close, the CEO could be the last one out to turn off the lights….     And, unlike a private corporation’s board of directors, a socialized energy board of directors can afford to be quite generous with public funds.  We would also caution such a CEO that: 1) with an administration appointed voting board, 2) with non voting legislators, 3) with the legislature and media breathing down one’s neck, 4) with a governor who considers himself the master CEO, and 5) with Ak LNG board communications, policy and efficiency threatened by all manner of influence peddling, bureaucratic delays and political machinations, life will not be easy.    -dh)